Authors: Professor Jeroen Huisman, director ICHEM, University of Bath and Dr. Harry de Boer, Senior Researcher CHEPS, University of Twente, NL
Many observers think that the UK higher education system will undergo significant changes in the coming years. The 2010 Browne report and the 2010 Spending Review include clear signals that will trigger policies that definitely will shake up the system, or will it? It is obvious that there are hard times ahead for the arts and humanities, and it is likely that fee increases will affect access. But … things may be less straightforward than they seem at first sight. To take the example of the fee proposals: they may have negative consequences for access to higher education, but the plans contain elements that may affect different types of domestic students differently. In addition, we also have to view the fee proposals in a broader context: will high fees challenge domestic students to go abroad for a degree? And this brings us to potential impacts beyond the fee issue: will UK higher education evolve towards a (or an even more) marketised sector? Will the existing system’s stratification continue to exist? Will private providers and professional bodies become important players in the field? Etc.
To better understand potential futures of the UK higher education system, a scenario study is proposed. The objective – in line with the call for proposals – is to further fuel the debate on the future of the system. The proposal can be seen as a ‘logical’ follow up to a 2010 Leadership Foundation project (Kubler and Sayers, 2010). Whereas that report provided a framework for leaders to help them plan for the future, this proposal actually develops a set of well-informed scenarios, using the Delphi method.
Acknowledging that scenario planning has shortcomings (see e.g. Ringland, 1998), the scenarios will provide thought-provoking images of the future higher education system, stimulate discussions on the likelihood and desirability of such images and – importantly – provide learning opportunities for organisational managers and leaders (thinking outside the box) and trigger and support organisational strategising (see also Sayers, 2010 who mentions e.g. dialogue and learning, engagement, planning improvement, resolving conflicts and challenging mindsets as benefits of scenario planning).
References
Kubler, J., N. Sayers (2010), Higher education futures: key themes and implications for leadership and management. London: Leadership Foundation for Higher Education.
Ringland, G.A. (1998), Scenario planning: Managing for the future. Chichester: Wiley.
Sayers, N. (2010), A guide to scenario planning in higher education. London: Leadership Foundation for Higher Education.