New financial forecasts to 2017-18 for the higher education (HE) sector have been published by the Higher Education Council of England (HEFCE). The forecasts are based on information submitted by institutions at the end of the academic year 2014/15.
The forecasts are highly dependent on the underlying assumptions made by institutions when compiling the data they submit. HEFCE notes that relatively small changes in key assumptions can result significant changes to an institution’s financial position.
HEFCE’s overall assessment is that while the sector’s financial stability remains good, with a low risk of institutions becoming insolvent, there is a general weakening in sector’s financial performance and number of areas of concern, namely:
HEFCE’s has also conducted sensitivity to analysis to illustrate the impact on the sector if the key assumptions change, or risks are realised. Unsurprisingly, the analysis shows if multiple events occur, the impact on the sector is more pronounced.
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